US Dollar net speculative positioning has flipped to net long for the first time since September 2011. In trending markets, speculators will catch the bulk of the move. In range markets, speculators will be wrong at the turns (as evidenced by their flip to net short in late September this year).
Latest CFTC Release dated November 06, 2012:
|
Week (Data for Tuesdays) |
52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable) |
|
US Dollar |
12 – speculators flip to net long |
|
Euro |
88 |
|
British Pound |
82 |
|
Australian Dollar |
73 |
|
Japanese Yen |
12 – speculators short position is consistent with turns towards Yen strength since 2010 |
|
Canadian Dollar |
82 |
|
Swiss Franc |
88 – speculators flip to net short |
|
Gold |
73 |
|
Silver |
88 |
|
Copper |
55 |
|
Crude |
20 |
The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.
Charts
Non Commercials (speculators) – Red
Commercials – Blue
Small Speculators – Black
COTDiff – Black
Volume on bottom
US Dollar
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Euro
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Australian Dollar
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Japanese Yen
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Canadian Dollar
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Swiss Franc
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Silver
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Copper
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Crude
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
This article (FOREX Analysis: US Dollar Speculative Positioning Flips to Net Long) was originally developed by and is property of American Banking News. Checkout American Banking News for up-to-date banking news and peer to peer lending news.